AMNA NAWAZ: Good evening.

I'm Amna Nawaz.

GEOFF BENNETT: And I'm Geoff Bennett.

On the "News Hour" tonight: It is Election Day, and voters across the country have been heading to the polls to decide control of the U.S.

House and Senate in a midterm election widely seen as a referendum on President Trump and his administration.

AMNA NAWAZ: The Department of Justice took unprecedented steps heading into this election.

A look at its efforts to change voter rolls and even block some results.

RICK HASEN, UCLA School of Law: Even if there's not an attempt to interfere with actually how the election is run, there could be further potential criminal liability, or at least attempted criminal liability, down the line, and that itself is dangerous to democracy.

GEOFF BENNETT: And a shift away from traditional exit polls.

As more Americans vote early, a new survey aims to better capture how and why they cast their ballots.

(BREAK) GEOFF BENNETT: Welcome to the "News Hour."

Millions of Americans from Anchorage to Atlanta are voting on this Election Day.

Polls in some states are just now starting to close, but much of the country still has hours to go.

And we will be here tracking it all.

AMNA NAWAZ: The midterm elections will determine whether control of the House and the Senate will shift to Democrats.

And many see the outcome as a nationwide verdict on President Trump.

Our White House correspondent, Liz Landers, begins our coverage.

LIZ LANDERS: Across America this morning, early risers lined up before sunup... WOMAN: Polls are open.

Come on in.

LIZ LANDERS: ... to make their voices heard with the cast of a ballot on this final day of voting.

KALYN REEVES, Georgia Voter: I'm here before work to do my civil duty.

And I think it's important because this midterm election is a turning point.

LIZ LANDERS: In battleground states coast to coast from Maine to Alaska, contentious campaigns coming to a close as control of Congress hangs in the balance.

MAN: It's about a 50/50, I think.

LIZ LANDERS: All eyes were on Michigan after a weekend that turned the Senate race on its head.

Republican Mike Rogers today lauded the surprise endorsement from Democratic Representative Haley Stevens and her criticisms of his opponent, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed.

MIKE ROGERS (R), Michigan Senatorial Candidate: Here's somebody who said, I voted Democrat all the way down the list, except for one person who I think is too extreme for our state.

That's country over party.

LIZ LANDERS: Some voters were swayed by the move.

PAUL STOCKYJ, Michigan Voter: She elected to support the opposition, which is very rare.

It never happens.

So I got to believe that there's something there.

ABDUL EL-SAYED (D), Michigan Senatorial Candidate: In the end, this is about what Michigan wants in its politics.

I'm not running to be the first anything.

I'm running to be the next senator for Michigan.

LIZ LANDERS: El-Sayed supporters say their vote was based on issues like affordability.

WALLETTA KEMP, Michigan Voter: My little car that used to take $30 is now almost taking $50.

It's ridiculous.

Families shouldn't have to go through this.

LIZ LANDERS: President Trump mostly laid low this Election Day, but was optimistic on a call with "FOX & Friends."

DONALD TRUMP, President of the United States: The inflation is solved.

LIZ LANDERS: The president dismissed voter anxieties about rising prices brought on by the war in Iran.

DONALD TRUMP: I think the results are going to be better than you think.

LIZ LANDERS: A polarizing president playing an outsized role in voters' decisions tonight even without his name on the ticket.

PATRICIA WITT, North Carolina Voter: I think President Trump is doing what needs to be done.

NEIL JONES, Maine Voter: The Republican Party has become the Trump party and I just don't feel comfortable for anyone associated with Trump.

LIZ LANDERS: The administration also taking unprecedented steps in combating what President Trump has falsely long decried as widespread voter fraud.

For the first time, the Justice Department deployed election monitors in all 50 states to pursue -- quote -- "transparency for elections in an assertive and nondiscriminatory manner."

In New York today, some voting machines were plagued with technical issues, impacting a key congressional race between Representative Mike Lawler and his Democratic challenger, Cait Conley.

Officials assured that emergency paper ballots will be counted, though it's unclear when.

KEN JENKINS, Westchester County, New York, Executive: Westchester County voters deserve a fair, secure, and seamless election process.

Today, that has fallen short of that standard.

LIZ LANDERS: In Ohio, a controversial race for governor ends tonight, Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy and Democrat Amy Acton making last minute pitches at the polls.

AMY ACTON (D), Ohio Gubernatorial Candidate: All of us are longing for this chaotic, hate-filled rhetoric to end.

All of us are longing for public servants again, good people on both sides of the aisle.

VIVEK RAMASWAMY (R), Ohio Gubernatorial Candidate: Vote for the person who can actually make your life better.

Vote for the person who you believe in your heart of heart is actually going to make your family's life better.

LIZ LANDERS: Either outcome would be a first for Ohio, and voters say they're looking forward to a new face for the future.

PREETHA KATAPADI, Ohio Voter: First Asian governor or the first woman governor.

LIZ LANDERS: In Texas, James Talarico is also trying to make history as the first Democrat to win a statewide election in three decades if he defeats the longtime attorney general, Republican Ken Paxton.

HANK SEIGMUND, Texas Voter: Ken Paxton, in my eyes, he's done too many things wrong.

And that's just the way I feel about it.

Let somebody else give it a shot.

LIZ LANDERS: Despite a handful of issues at polling locations, election officials from Minnesota to Arizona telling PBS News the voting is running smoothly, with Americans still turning out in record numbers for early voting in some states this midterm cycle, eager to have their voices heard.

AMNA NAWAZ: That's our White House correspondent Liz Landers reporting.

Well, we have a full panel of experts here tonight for analysis.

But, first, we turn to our congressional correspondent, Lisa Desjardins, who's at the Super Screen to break down tonight's results.

So Lisa, start us off.

Let's talk about the House.

How are you watching this contest for the Lower Chamber?

And are the first results in yet?

LISA DESJARDINS: Fascinating election we have here, everyone.

To begin with, look at this map.

These are the 89 competitive House seats we're watching tonight, almost every region of the country.

But let's dig into what is going on.

Magic ball, we have a little bit here.

Let's look at the House races.

There is in fact some set of results coming in.

Let's go first here to Indiana, where we're starting to see just some races, a little bit of data coming in from Indiana.

This is not a competitive seat, but we know that Democrats to take over the House need to pick up three seats in net.

One of the first places they are hoping to do that is here in Kentucky's Sixth District.

This is where the Democrat Zach Dembo, he's a former DOJ prosecutor, is taking on state senator Ralph Alvarado.

And I want to show you what's happening here.

This is a district where Republicans won by more than 20 points just two years ago, but yet Democrats are competitive.

This is the kind of place where Democrats are watching, especially early in the night, to see if they have pickups in red states.

GEOFF BENNETT: Lisa, what about the other early races to watch in the House?

LISA DESJARDINS: Yes, exactly.

Let's go back up here to Indiana, another one we're watching that's competitive.

Oh, it looks like maybe we have some results here.

Oh, we do.

This is Indiana's Fifth District.

Victoria Spartz is the Republican incumbent.

She's known for sometimes changing her mind close to a vote.

She's an independent-minded person.

She's up against state Senator J.D.

Ford.

He's the first gay senator in Indiana's history.

This is obviously a big early lead for Ford, but I want to tell you, in Indiana, the way that they count votes is they count the early votes first.

So it makes sense that a Democrat might be leading early on, but these are the first results we have of the night for the House.

AMNA NAWAZ: All right, Lisa, take us over to the Senate now.

We know this is a very close and hard-to-predict contest.

What are you looking at here?

LISA DESJARDINS: I want people to understand a way of understanding the Senate tonight.

Essentially, Democrats need to pick up a net of four seats across the country.

North Carolina, one of the first races we will hear from, that is something that is expected to go to Democrats.

If in fact it does, that means this number four needs to be just three.

There are six now toss-ups in Republican red states.

So if Republicans -- if Democrats can pick up three seats here, plus North Carolina, they can take the Senate.

However, we will see what happens.

There are some less competitive seats that are in play.

Michigan now has been moved by The Cook Political Report to be less competitive.

But if Democrats lose that, then Republicans would have more of an advantage here with the toss-ups.

GEOFF BENNETT: Lisa Desjardins, our thanks to you.

Let's turn now to our expert panel for analysis.

That includes Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report -- she's the editor in chief there -- "The Atlantic" staff writer David Brooks and Boston Globe columnist Kimberly Atkins Stohr.

AMNA NAWAZ: Also with us is Mo Elleithee.

He's a Democratic strategist.

He's former spokesman for the Democratic National Committee.

Doug Heye is here.

He's a Republican strategist and the former spokesman for the Republican National Committee.

And Tiffany Smiley is back with us.

She's a former Republican candidate for U.S.

Senate from Washington state.

Welcome to you all.

We're in for a long night.

Thank you for being here.

Amy, kick us off here.

I know we have some early results coming in from the voter poll, which is sort of a collaboration between the Associated Press, who we are relying on for results, and broadcast networks.

It tells us about who voted and why so far.

AMY WALTER, The Cook Political Report: Right.

AMNA NAWAZ: What are we hearing from voters so far about what's driving them to the polls?

AMY WALTER: Not surprisingly, the economy is driving everything; 39 percent of voters saying this was their top issue that they were voting on.

We have known now throughout the last two years that voters have been telling us over and over again that the economy, especially inflation, is something that continues to frustrate them.

And I think that's something else that we have seen in this poll as well, that the issue of the cost of stuff, especially the cost, the high cost of gasoline, big factor for so many of these voters.

GEOFF BENNETT: And, Tiffany Smiley, there's, of course, the Trump fact you hear.

According to the same data, 43 percent of voters say they cast their ballots to express opposition to President Trump, compared to just 16 percent who voted to express support.

How much of a challenge is that going to be for Republicans tonight?

And what does it tell you about the president's political standing?

TIFFANY SMILEY (R), Former Washington Senatorial Candidate: Yes, well, I think he's shown that he is willing to work hard and get out there, go to red states and really drive out his voters.

He knows, when he's at the top of the ticket, his voters turn out and vote.

And so that's what he's he's been working so hard at doing.

I think there's a couple factors going on.

I think the Democrat Party has really lacked leadership.

And so instead of voting for someone, they're just voting against Donald Trump.

We have seen this played out over and over again.

So I think maybe the question is, are Trump's voters going to be as enthusiastic as they were in 2024?

And are they going to come out and give the Republicans another shot at continuing to get the economy, like you mentioned, Amy, back on track?

Do they really believe that the Republicans hold the answer?

Because right now the Democrats really aren't even giving them a solution to a better future.

So I think that's sort of what we will see tonight played out.

AMNA NAWAZ: Well, so Doug and Mo, weigh in on this and what we have heard from Amy and Tiffany so far.

But I also want to point out what the voter poll tells us about how Americans are looking at which party they can trust on which issue, because this sort of surprised me.

Voters are now saying Democrats are better able to handle the following issues, the economy, foreign policy, health care, and government corruption.

The only issue they said Republicans could handle better right now is immigration.

This is a big change for Democrats.

MO ELLEITHEE, Democratic Strategist: Yes, I can't remember in my career a time when Democrats led on the economy and foreign policy.

Like, that's -- that portends a good night for us.

Look, at the end of the day, it's a midterm election.

The president in power is typically the question on the ballot, right?

That's typically what voters are responding to.

And, man, are they -- does it seem like they're responding this year.

In race after race in states that should not even be on the map, Democrats are in play.

So, I think -- look, I'm not one to measure drapes prematurely, except maybe in the speaker's office.

That feels pretty cooked.

But -- and this could be a very long night, particularly when it comes to the Senate.

But when you go even deeper, governors, Democrats have the potential to control a majority of the governor's offices for the first time in a couple of decades.

They have got the opportunity tonight to get unified control of at least seven new state legislatures and break up unified Republican control of another six.

If that happens, if this wave plays out that way, that has a chance to fundamentally change the way we govern ourselves, at least for the next couple of years.

AMNA NAWAZ: Doug.

DOUG HEYE, Republican Strategist: Yes, look, I go back to 2010 when, I was at the RNC.

Our magic number for Obama was 46 percent.

We thought if he was at or below that, we'd take back the House.

There's not been a number that's shown Donald Trump that starts with a four in a long time.

And it's why you have seen some candidates, certainly Ashley Hinson and Mike Rogers being two, trying to create separation.

It's a really hard thing to do, because when Amy Walter was hounding me in 2006, a tough year for Republicans, about, well, all the Democrats are doing is tying your candidate to George W. Bush, there was nothing we could do.

And it's been that same dynamic for Democrats, they certainly feel the wind at their back on because of this.

And it's why the closing message and events from Trump have been to me so, at best, questionable.

A closing speech, your closing message of your campaign talking about a Reflecting Pool and the real details and the piping of the Reflecting Pool?

Republican voters, all voters want to hear, here's what we have done in the Big Beautiful Bill to lower prices.

Here's what we're going to do over the next two years.

Trump has made it harder for Republican candidates on the ballot to do so, and that's why their backs are against the wall.

GEOFF BENNETT: And, David Brooks, to use Doug's line, it's not a number that starts with four.

It's a number that starts with six.

It's 61 percent of voters, they say President Trump prioritizes his personal interests over the country's interests.

How does the Republican Party, or can the Republican Party separate itself from the president on that?

DAVID BROOKS: It's done a fantastic job over the last decade.

I would say a couple things.

First, midterms are bad for the party in power, for the president's party.

They're bad in the first term, historically a loss of 27 seats on average.

They're worse in the second term.

Psychologically, we're in Trump's third term, because he has been on our faces for 10 years.

And, if people are going to get sick of Donald Trump, they have had -- this is their occasion to do so.

But what strikes me, in addition to what Amy talked about, about the economy, is that in these exit polls or whatever they're calling them these days, as many or more people said government corruption was crucial to their vote as the economy.

That is a very surprising number to me, 54 percent crucial to their vote, another 36 saying it was a major factor.

So you -- I pull out my calculator, I think that's 90 percent.

That's a lot of people really worried about government corruption.

And, to me, they're not just saying this to pollsters.

The fact that Ken Paxton in Texas is trailing so badly in the polls suggests to me that government corruption really is a major factor.

And Trump -- Democrats and Republicans have very different definitions of what government corruption is, but Trump's perception of corruption or perception of self-dealing, the fact that he talks about himself a lot, that's all redounds to his party's deficit.

GEOFF BENNETT: And, Kimberly, to the point that Tiffany raised about the degree to which this is a vote against Trump or a vote for Democrats throughout the course of the night, you have 43 percent of voters, according to this AP voter poll, say they voted to express opposition to President Trump, but 54 percent also have an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party.

What does that suggest?

KIMBERLY ATKINS STOHR, The Boston Globe: I think there is a lot of anger at the establishment writ large.

I think that it's really interesting in this midterms, because, generally speaking, Congress, for example, is really unpopular.

You ask someone if they like Congress, the answer is no, but they tend to like their own lawmaker.

This is an election where most people don't even like their own lawmaker.

Things are not going well, and they have no problem laying that on the people who are in charge, even if it is someone that they voted for previously.

But what I think is different now, and to your point about corruption, the Democratic Party doesn't really have a leader, a figurehead, and I actually think that's to their advantage now, because it has freed the candidates to talk about the issues where they are.

So, John -- Roy Cooper can be a very different candidate from Jon Ossoff and talk to their people, and that is being very effective.

People want that.

They don't want candidates who will just look like a rubber stamp for Donald Trump.

DOUG HEYE: Yes, in 2010, we had Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi.

That was like manna from heaven for Republicans.

AMY WALTER: Yes.

AMNA NAWAZ: Amy, meanwhile, in the minute or so we have left, I want you to help me remind folks at home, patience is key.

We may not know all the... AMY WALTER: All the answers.

Exactly.

AMNA NAWAZ: Tonight.

That's right.

But are there early races you're looking towards that could give us some indication of how the rest of the night goes?

AMY WALTER: Well, I think Lisa's going to help a lot with some of these House races because so many of them are in states that happen to count pretty quickly, Texas and Florida.

And I'm looking at those in particular because those were the ones that were redrawn by Republicans to benefit Republicans.

Right now -- and they had hoped to get up to nine seats.

Right now, they'd be lucky to get maybe three of those seats.

But if they have a better-than-expected night, that is a good sign that maybe the bottom hasn't fallen out for Republicans if they're able to hold on to a couple of these districts, especially in the Rio Grande Valley.

And then in Florida, we will be looking at a number of those new districts that still have significant Latino population drawn from Trump's 2024 number, which we will soon see in these voter polls just how much it's dropped off the support for from Latinos for Trump.

We have seen it in traditional polling that his support from those voters has waned considerably.

AMNA NAWAZ: All right, thank you to our full panel.

We're going to spend many hours together.

We look forward to your insights and analysis.

GEOFF BENNETT: Let's head back now to the White House, where our White House correspondent, Liz Landers, has been reporting from all day just outside the West Wing there.

So, Liz, what kind of night are the president's advisers expecting?

LIZ LANDERS: Well, President Trump himself has been relatively quiet today.

We have not seen him in public yet.

He is supposed to have an election viewing reception here at the White House starting in a few minutes at 7:00 p.m.

this evening.

But this all comes after a frenetic campaign sprint for the president.

He did 30 events in 20 states in 32 days to make the case to voters that he was on the ballot.

And, yesterday, you saw him deliver that closing message at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool there, and he seemed to acknowledge that his party may have some losses today, Geoff.

He said: "We gave this a very strong shot."

AMNA NAWAZ: Liz, I know, in addition to covering the White House tonight, you're also watching election security issues for us.

You have been talking to state election officials all day.

What are you hearing?

LIZ LANDERS: Amna, I have heard from about a dozen state and local election officials throughout the day today.

They're optimistic.

They feel proud of the work they're doing and the voter experience that they have been able to deliver today to millions of Americans across the country.

Many of them are also doing press conferences, public updates, inviting the public in to see the process and be transparent about how they tabulate votes, which will begin in some cases later on this evening.

In some places, it's already under way.

We have seen an unprecedented level of federal government involvement, though, in these elections this year.

I asked the homeland security secretary about ICE agents at polling locations just a few moments ago.

Sir, have you put ICE agents at any polling locations today?

MARKWAYNE MULLIN, U.S.

Homeland Security Secretary: We didn't.

LIZ LANDERS: OK.

SEN.

MARKWAYNE MULLIN: That's -- you guys are saying that.

We have never said that.

I have said it from day one.

We never -- have never done that.

And we're not doing it.

LIZ LANDERS: You had said that you might do it if there were threats.

So you haven't seen any threats?

SEN.

MARKWAYNE MULLIN: If there was threats.

if there was threats, that would be different.

But to put them out there just for whatever you guys perceive to be true isn't true.

LIZ LANDERS: So, no ICE agents at polling locations.

However, the Department of Justice did send election monitors, as we have said, more than 1,000 of them, to all 50 states across the country.

And New Mexico's secretary of state told me earlier today that they were having issues with those federal election monitors there.

She said that they were asking unusual questions in Bernalillo County there, which is not allowed.

The election monitors are not allowed to ask voters questions.

They said that they ran this up the chain to the Department of Justice asking them to stop.

Department of Justice sent us a letter -- or a statement, I should say, saying that they had a productive call with the secretary of state's office there and they believe that they have resolved the issue.

I would just add, though, that is the only incident so far that we have heard about.

Other secretaries of state in Kansas and Arizona telling me no issues with those federal election monitors there.

AMNA NAWAZ: All right, that's our White House correspondent, Liz Landers, joining us tonight, who will be with us for the rest of the night.

Liz, thank you.

LIZ LANDERS: Of course.

GEOFF BENNETT: Let's turn now to election security and the prospect of potential election interference.

In recent months, the Trump administration and the Department of Justice have led an extraordinary effort to exert federal control over state-run elections, filing a series of lawsuits against states like California and Alaska, threatening to prosecute local election officials, attempting to curb mail-in voting, and working to obtain sensitive voter information from nearly every state.

Now, nearly all of those efforts so far have been blocked or rejected by the courts.

President Trump has also repeatedly cast doubt on the integrity of the election itself, something experts fear could be used as a pretext for interference in close races.

For insight and analysis, we're joined tonight by two guests.

Rick Hasen is a professor of law and director of the Safeguarding Democracy Project at UCLA School of Law.

And Juliette Kayyem is a former assistant secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, currently at the Harvard Kennedy School.

Thank you both.

For being with us.

Rick, we will start with you.

The Justice Department has filed lawsuit after lawsuit challenging election procedures, and courts have repeatedly rejected the DOJ's arguments.

Is this a serious legal strategy, in your view, or a political strategy dressed up as litigation?

RICK HASEN, UCLA School of Law: Well, I do think that this was a way of testing the waters.

If, in fact, the federal courts had allowed the federal government to dictate which ballots California has to set aside or to allow the federal government to block certification of the U.S.

Senate race in Alaska, then that would be an indication, a kind of green light, that they could try that in other places where there might be close races as the ballots get tabulated.

But the fact that they have been rejected, including a rejection from the Supreme Court in a very unusual way yesterday, where the court did not even ask for a response before they rejected the appeal related to setting aside those 20,000 ballots in California, I think the courts are sending a big signal that this is not going to work.

And so, if it continues, it's probably more of a political strategy than a legal strategy.

GEOFF BENNETT: And, Juliette, from a national security perspective, is the fact that the legal system is largely holding the line, is that reassuring, or are we missing the bigger threat here?

JULIETTE KAYYEM, Former U.S.

Department of Homeland Security Assistant Secretary: I think it's reassuring and we are missing a bigger threat.

I mean, let's just start from the baseline.

We are supposed to have the peaceful transfer of power with no suggestion of the kinds of activity that the Trump administration is arguing in court.

And I think Rick really sort of perfectly does the sort the legal forms of intimidation or narrative that the Trump White House is pursuing, but there are others.

First of all, that narrative that is promoted not just by Trump, but you're hearing even today Republican politicians who could lose talking about fraud, talking about allegations of fraud.

That undermines our democracy, because a certain number of supporters are going to believe that the vote is not fair.

But, secondly and as importantly, it is a radicalizing event.

I'm not saying everyone who believes it will turn to violence, but if you just look at the narrative from November of the election to January 6, that narrative begins with fraud allegations.

People are not voting.

I just want to add one other thing.

We shouldn't think that this is just like, oh, they're filing in court.

Two other things the Trump administration is doing, the threat of ICE deployment, we have not seen it yet, but we don't know if that threat suppressed Hispanic votes.

And the other is, this morning, they just decide they're going to send 1,000 election watchers to major urban cities with no interaction, no notice for the people who are actually running that election.

So this is part of a soup of attempt to game whatever is going to happen with the results.

GEOFF BENNETT: And let's talk more about that, the DOJ announcing that they're sending 1,000 election monitors and observers to all 50 states in what it called the largest Election Day monitoring effort in history.

As you both know, federal election monitoring is nothing new.

But, Rick, in your view, apart from the scale here, beyond the scale, what what's different about this operation?

RICK HASEN: Well, as I understand it, they're not just sending DOJ election lawyers.

They're going to send, at least one report, potentially agents from ATF,people who are not really associated with monitoring elections.

I think the bigger threat that came out today is not the monitors, and they did announce earlier that there were going to be some monitors being sent, but it was the reporting that, in the Alaska case involving the two Dan Sullivans, that some criminal target letters have been sent to Democratic lawyers and to the parts of the Democratic Party.

That suggests that, even if there's not an attempt to interfere with actually how the election is run, there could be further potential criminal liability or at least attempted criminal liability down the line, and that itself is dangerous to democracy.

GEOFF BENNETT: And a question about what could happen after the polls close.

What could the federal government actually do, Juliette, to interfere with counting or certification or in some other way disrupt the process, especially if it's a close race?

JULIETTE KAYYEM: So it depends on what happens overnight.

I think one of the big gaps or worrisome aspects from state officials that I have been hearing is, of course, if overnight or in the course of this evening, there -- the votes are not counted, but the FBI comes in with, again, a lawful warrant or some sort of document that allows them to take the ballots or election instruments before the count.

Because then you lose what's called the chain of custody.

You lose that ability to say, look, the votes came in, we counted them, here's the number, which is -- generally resides in -- or always resides in the state.

So I think that's something that we worried about.

We don't know what's going to happen overnight.

And then, of course, as Rick said, we -- you have a lot of states that might play with the idea of lawful certification.

Then you have another series of cases.

And then, from my perspective, not only is that a reflection to the world that we essentially do not have the -- a calm transfer of power.

The other is that that -- these are radicalization moments, and we have never had leadership sort of push the envelope sort of in terms of what that can mean.

Again, this does not mean the party is advocating violence.

But, in this moment, the longer we go, the more you can have very nefarious narratives pop up, pushed by foreign enemies and intelligence agencies that then begin to make things look a little bit more nerve-racking, honestly.

GEOFF BENNETT: And, Rick, in those scenarios that Juliette has just laid out there, are the courts equipped to step in and stop that kind of interference quickly enough?

RICK HASEN: Well, certainly, many groups, including my own Safeguarding Democracy Project, have been getting the word out to judges that you shouldn't just be a rubber stamp if there's a search warrant that's issued for ballots or for voting machines, that there are other ways to deal with law enforcement legitimate investigatory purposes without breaking the electoral chain of custody.

I really do think that what the last few months have shown us is that the courts across the political spectrum -- this is not a Democratic appointee versus Republican appointee thing.

We're seeing courts hold the line on free and fair elections.

I think the courts, as well as the fact that we have power diffused to the states, we don't have the executive branch of the federal government able to dictate how elections are being run, that really -- the center so far has held.

And I think, unless we have a very close election for control of the House or the Senate, we're likely to squeak through because of a lot of hard work of thousands of people.

GEOFF BENNETT: Rick Hasen and Juliette Kayyem, thank you both for your insights, of course, over the last few weeks and months leading up to this moment, and, of course, on this Election Day.

We're most appreciative.

RICK HASEN: Thank you.

JULIETTE KAYYEM: Thank you.

AMNA NAWAZ: This election cycle has been compared to the midterms of 2006, when Democrats won back control of Congress and, in an historic first, elected Nancy Pelosi to be the first female speaker of the House.

That was 20 years ago.

Today, Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi is in the final months of her political career.

And like she's done every election night since 2016, Speaker Pelosi joins us now.

Madam Speaker, welcome back.

Thank you for continuing this tradition with us.

I want to begin, of course, with your predictions.

How big a majority do you think Democrats can win in the House tonight?

And will you win control of the Senate?

REP.

NANCY PELOSI (D-CA): Well, thank you, Amna, for the opportunity to share some thoughts with you once again on election night.

One thing I will say, following up on your previous guests, be not afraid to voters.

Just go out and vote.

Hakeem Jeffries has worked very hard to do three things, one, to win the election, two, to protect the election, and, three, to show the people what will happen once we do.

So, your vote is protected, go vote.

Whether it's litigation, whether it's legislation, whether it's communication or mobilization, we're ready.

We're ready for anything they might come up with.

AMNA NAWAZ: Always good to underscore that.

You're absolutely right.

What will you think will happen tonight now?

REP.

NANCY PELOSI: I think, tonight, we will have a big victory.

It will be many seats in the House of Representatives.

I put -- I want 30.

But the fact is, they will be very slim victories.

So I don't want anybody to think, oh, well, you have won, so let's move on to other things.

No, we -- every race will be close, but there will be many of them.

You mentioned 2006.

And, in 2006, he who shall be nameless was at 44 percent favorable.

Now it's -- 45 percent favorable.

Now it's 38, a seven-points difference.

And, in 18, we won 40 seats, 31 of them in Trump districts.

So now he's down to 38.

We expect to have a big Democratic victory in the House and hopefully also in the Senate.

In my own district, I'm supporting Connie Chan.

And, for me, what is interesting is, when I went to Congress, there were 12 women, Democratic women out of 435 people, 12 Democratic women.

So my passion over the years has been to increase that number.

And I'm so happy to still be in Congress for the election, but we will go over 100, and hopefully Connie Chan will take us there as well.

So, we're prepared for victory.

AMNA NAWAZ: We have certainly seen some big changes on that front.

You're absolutely right.

I do want to ask you about some specific races, though, because Democrats have been sort of reeling from some late-breaking stories in Michigan, in particular, in the Senate race.

I'm sure you were tracking Haley Stevens on Sunday stepping in after she lost the Democratic primary to actually endorse the Republican candidate there, Mike Rogers.

He's running against Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic nominee.

What do you think -- or how do you think, rather, that impacts the race?

Will that hurt El-Sayed?

REP.

NANCY PELOSI: By all reports that I have from Michigan -- and we have races there too in the House -- of course, we're concerned about the Senate and the governor's race -- it's going to be a landslide in Michigan.

We will win that Senate seat in Michigan.

Unfortunately, and with all the respect in the world that I have for my former colleague Haley Stevens, this distraction from what we should be talking about is, what are the Democrats going to do when they win, rather than why did Haley Stevens change her support in that race?

So let's not be distracted by that.

That was then.

This is now, today.

The Democrats will win big in Michigan, and it will not -- it will not affect whether we win the House -- excuse me -- the Senate and the House, as a matter of fact, as well.

AMNA NAWAZ: So, to that point... REP.

NANCY PELOSI: It's a pretty exciting night.

It's going to be a big victory for us.

AMNA NAWAZ: To that point, as you mentioned, what Democrats should prioritize if they do win control of both chambers -- rather, in the House especially, I know you have supported Hakeem Jeffries to be the eventual speaker if the Democrats do win the majority there.

I'm sure you have seen a number of sort of anti-establishment candidates, though, reserve their judgment and say they're not ready to support him to be speaker.

They say they're frustrated with the status quo.

They say Democrats and leaders aren't fighting hard enough.

Are there concerns valid, in your view?

REP.

NANCY PELOSI: Hakeem Jeffries will be a very strong speaker of the House, and he will be the speaker of the House.

And with all due respect for all members, they represent their district.

Their job title and their job description are one and the same, representative.

So we respect that.

But we also respect the consensus of the House Democrats, again, respecting everybody's point of view, but with enough votes, just win big, baby.

And that's the answer to all this.

I always had that.

Everybody -- I was always fighting.

But, nonetheless, we always prevailed and we got our votes and we won, even when we were down to like two- or three-vote majority.

So Hakeem will be fine with that.

I think that more is made of those differences.

Those people are wonderful.

They're welcome to Congress, but they're not going to hold up a Democratic agenda to reduce the cost of living, to make sure that people have access to health care and overturn what Trump did to take a trillion dollars out of Medicaid, half-a-trillion out of Medicare, hundreds of billions out of food for children, to give tax cuts to the richest people.

And one place to go get the money is ICE, which has a bigger budget than the Marine Corps, so -- and then, third of all, to see -- people see the connection between corruption and their well-being too.

So, again, he has an agenda that he's put forth.

We had six for '06 in '06, and he has three right now, but they're very large -- a very large agenda.

And for the first 100 days, he will -- people will see the difference very clearly... AMNA NAWAZ: Speaker Pelosi... REP.

NANCY PELOSI: ... between Democrats and Republicans.

AMNA NAWAZ: I apologize for interrupting.

I just want to ask you before -- I have a matter of seconds left, but I wanted to put this to you because this is your last election cycle as a lawmaker.

You are retiring at the end of your term in January.

I wonder if you have thought about what it will be like when you are not a member of Congress and you're watching election results come in, in the next cycle.

Have you thought about what that would feel like?

REP.

NANCY PELOSI: Not too much.

I'm just right still in this fight right now to win this election.

But I will always be supportive of Democrats because that's what I was born into, and that's what I believe.

And it's about really never more important right now for us to support working families, working families with all the -- in my district, there are people who make in two weeks what some of their employees make in a lifetime.

So working with our friends in labor and the rest, we want to have an agenda for working families.

I will also be teaching at Berkeley, and that's not about politics.

That's about policy and training young leaders for the future.

AMNA NAWAZ: It is not.

You're right.

You're right.

And we do hope that you can come back and join us again some time very soon.

We will have to leave it there for now.

Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, always a pleasure to speak with you.

Thank you.

REP.

NANCY PELOSI: My pleasure.

Thank you, Amna.

Thank you, Geoff.

GEOFF BENNETT: And now, for a Republican perspective, we're joined tonight by Ronna McDaniel.

She chaired the Republican National Committee for seven years, including throughout President Trump's first term.

She's now a campaign surrogate for Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers in Michigan.

And she joins us tonight from Lansing.

It's good to see you.

Welcome to the "News Hour."

RONNA MCDANIEL, Former Chair, Republican National Committee: Great to be with you.

Thanks for having me.

GEOFF BENNETT: And we should say you chaired the RNC during President Trump's first midterm back in 2018.

House Republicans then lost a net total of 41 seats.

In your view, how does the political environment right now compare to then, eight years ago?

RONNA MCDANIEL: Well, I would also add that we picked up Senate seats in that first midterm, which was unprecedented to pick up Senate seats in a midterm.

Listen, in the first midterm of a sitting president, you typically lose seats in the House or flip a chamber.

That's been the precedent for over 100 years.

And when I was RNC chair in 2022, we actually flipped the House and won that back for Republicans under Biden.

So that's what happens in midterms, and I think this is something that we're seeing this midterm.

I do think that the House probably will flip to Democrats this cycle.

GEOFF BENNETT: Let me ask you this, though.

As you look across the electorate, where do you see the greatest opportunities for Republicans?

What are you watching most closely tonight?

RONNA MCDANIEL: Well, I'm in Michigan, so I'm looking at Mike Rogers.

This is a Democrat seat that they have held.

We haven't had a Republican in the Senate here since 1994.

Mike has run a very good race.

He has made inroads in traditionally Democrat constituencies, the Jewish vote, the Black vote.

He actually has a whole Democrats for Rogers coalition.

And then we saw the endorsement of Haley Stevens, a sitting Democrat congresswoman come out and endorse Mike Rogers.

So I think this is a seat that we're looking at very, very closely.

GEOFF BENNETT: And looking nationally, you said recently that Republicans shouldn't be spending hundreds of millions of dollars defending a Texas Senate seat.

How did the party find itself fighting for seats that should have been safely Republican?

RONNA MCDANIEL: Well, I don't know if I said they shouldn't be.

I said it's concerning to have to spend that much, because that means you're not spending in races where you can pick up, right?

Like, if you're spending in a safe -- in a safe seat in a safe state, that takes away resources from potential gains.

But, of course, we are battling in red areas right now.

I do think we're going to hold the Senate.

I do think Texas comes through, Kansas comes through.

These are states that Donald Trump won by double digits.

And so, while I think we may lose the House, I think the Senate stays in Republican hands.

GEOFF BENNETT: Republicans are asking to give -- asking voters, rather, to give President Trump two more years of unified Republican control.

What would Republicans deliver that they haven't already?

RONNA MCDANIEL: Well, the Big Beautiful Bill did provide no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security.

I think getting out of this Iran war, you will see gas prices go down, which I know is heavy on the minds of many voters across this country.

Affordability is a huge issue.

And as you see the policies of deregulation come forward, things that Trump has enacted, I think you will see a better economy in the next two years.

And he wants to complete that with Republicans.

He may not have that opportunity.

I hope the Democrats don't go in and just go into lawfare and trying to attack Republicans in retribution, which we have heard our own Senator Elissa Slotkin say is on the agenda for them.

I actually hope that we can work together and find ways to help the American people, because that's what they want.

GEOFF BENNETT: President Trump will not be on the ballot again.

Is the Republican Party prepared for a political future without him?

RONNA MCDANIEL: I think he will have a lot of say in the nominee for 2028.

I -- he's not somebody who fades to the background very easily.

The Democrats look like they're going to have something like 20 candidates running for president.

I don't think our field has shaped up yet.

And I think whoever our nominees are or whoever's running, they're probably going to go and talk to President Trump first, and he will have a lot of impact in that primary because he does have huge sway with our base, specifically in primaries, and we saw that across this cycle as well.

GEOFF BENNETT: President Trump, his approval rating is underwater.

His numbers on the economy are even worse.

They're in the 20 percent range.

When he tells voters to act as if he's on the ballot, is he helping Republicans or hurting them, in your view?

RONNA MCDANIEL: Yes, there are Republicans that just don't turn out, or there are Trump voters that just don't turn out unless he's on the ballot.

So him saying that to his voters is key, because we have seen in past midterms -- and I know this personally as former RNC chair -- those Trump voters sit out without his name on the ballot.

So those are the people he's talking to.

And Republicans are going to need those voters to turn out, traditional Republicans to turn out, and we are certainly going to need independents if we're going to win in states like Michigan, Maine, some of these battleground states.

In Kansas and Texas, I think him saying that does mean a lot to those Republican voters because he did win those states by double digits, and that is where he can really help.

GEOFF BENNETT: Ronna McDaniel, former RNC chair, great to have your perspectives as part of our coverage.

Thanks for being with us.

RONNA MCDANIEL: Thanks for having me.

GEOFF BENNETT: Well, on this Election Day, candidates and campaigns and all of us watching closely are interested in more than just how many people voted.

We want to know who turned out, what motivated them to vote, and which issues mattered most as they cast their ballots.

AMNA NAWAZ: Traditional exit polls are evolving, as the way people vote has changed.

Deema Zein takes a closer look at some of the data behind the election.

DEEMA ZEIN: To know exactly who showed up to the polls and why they voted for a particular candidate, you have to ask the voters.

This year, "News Hour" is getting some of that information from the voter poll.

It's a new collaboration between the Associated Press and other news outlets to survey voters directly by phone, Internet, and in person.

To explain how it works, I'm joined by David Scott, V.P.

of election services at the Associated Press.

David, thanks for joining us.

DAVID SCOTT, Vice President of Election Services, Associated Press: Glad to be here.

DEEMA ZEIN: So this is a new system this year, joining forces with broadcast networks after about a decade of developing and using your own system to measure the vote.

Why?

DAVID SCOTT: We wanted to reach voters where they are.

That's the most important thing.

So if you're conducting a survey as Americans are casting their ballot, you need to be in all of the places where they cast a ballot.

We needed to be able to interview voters who are casting their ballots in person on Election Day.

But, at the same time, most Americans vote in advance.

And so we look at the voter file and look at who's cast a ballot, and then we try to interview them either online, by mail, by phone.

Whatever way that they would like to interact with us once we see that they have cast a ballot, then we're able to interview them, ask them questions about who they voted for and why.

DEEMA ZEIN: So people are familiar with this term exit poll.

This is different.

Can we talk a little bit about how exactly?

DAVID SCOTT: Well, part of it is an exit poll, right?

We are going to have thousands of people who are out in the 50 states interviewing people as they cast their ballot on Election Day.

But we also will interview people before Election Day, because people cast their ballots before Election Day.

Really, what we have tried to do with our colleagues at the broadcast networks is design a methodology that reaches Americans.

No matter how you cast your ballot, you have the opportunity for us to ask you questions, so we can understand the fullness of the American electorate.

DEEMA ZEIN: And how many people are you talking to as part of this new process?

DAVID SCOTT: Yes, it's an enormous survey.

So, like a normal political poll that you might see in a state about a Senate race might be based on 500 interviews.

We're going to aim for somewhere between 80,000 and 100,000 interviews taking place leading up to Election Day and then on Election Day itself.

So it's an enormous survey.

And it's one of the things that we think is really important, that we're going to have results in every state where there's a statewide election this year.

It's not just about the battlegrounds.

DEEMA ZEIN: What does this help tell you guys at the AP?

DAVID SCOTT: We're looking for insights in the data about who has voted, what they cared about, what issues were resonating.

We know which issues each candidate was talking about in a race, and so which ones were most important to voters.

We look at the demographics of a state and we look at the demographics of the electorate and see how that matches up.

One of the things that we saw in 2024 was some of those demographic shifts that pointed early in the night to success for President Trump.

You could see in the data about who was voting that he was poised to have a good night.

We were able to get a sense that this is where the election was going, and so those are the types of things that we will be looking at.

DEEMA ZEIN: David Scott, vice president of election services at the Associated Press, thanks again for joining us.

DAVID SCOTT: Happy to be here.

AMNA NAWAZ: In the day's other headlines: President Trump says the U.S.

will suspend $4 billion in annual aid to Israel starting next year.

But speaking to FOX News by phone this morning, Mr.

Trump said that arms sales will continue.

The president did not provide details or explain how the funding would wind down, given that the current memorandum of understanding with Israel doesn't expire until 2028.

His comments came just as voters began heading to the polls in an election where U.S.

support for Israel has been a contentious point for both parties.

In the meantime, there are concerns about renewed fighting in Iran after the U.S.

carried out what officials called defensive strikes overnight.

Eyewitness video caught one blast on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz.

A U.S.

official tells the "News Hour" the strikes were in response to Iranian attacks on ships.

And there have reportedly been other such instances that have not been made public.

In the meantime, diplomatic efforts are ongoing, with Iran offering to reopen the strait if the U.S.

lifts its naval blockade, among other steps.

Iran's Parliament speaker and chief negotiator said today that the U.S.

would -- quote -- "face a new battlefield" should matters escalate further.

MOHAMMAD BAGHER QALIBAF, Iranian Parliament Speaker (through translator): The Islamic Republic of Iran, while standing ready for battle with its finger on the trigger, has given the American side a firm and rational response.

The ball now is in America's court to prevent war.

AMNA NAWAZ: President Trump had said that the U.S.

would not launch strikes on Iran before today's elections.

The Supreme Court appeared sympathetic today to Catholic schools who've challenged Colorado's anti-discrimination rules for state-funded preschools.

The schools argue that the state violated their constitutional rights by excluding them because they won't admit children of gay and transgender parents.

The state says its rules apply equally to all participating schools.

It's the latest case to come before the court in which Christian plaintiffs have pushed back on measures aimed at protecting LGBTQ rights.

The justices are expected to rule by the end of next June.

In South Florida, investigators say they found some plane parts nearly four miles from the site of this weekend's private jet crash.

National safety officials say the discovery of tail pieces confirms that the plane was breaking apart before it hit the ground.

And they say, even with the tail intact, it would have been difficult to avoid disaster given the extreme speed of the plane's descent.

THOMAS CHAPMAN, National Transportation Safety Board: Whether a piece like that was lost may have contributed to the crash itself or whether the forces on the aircraft caused that to separate, we don't know that yet, but those are the two likely possibilities that we will want to examine.

AMNA NAWAZ: Meanwhile, we're learning more about the nine victims on board.

They include 55-year-old pilot Jeff Gregory, a longtime aviator seen here with his wife, Cheryl.

He was joined in the cockpit by 20-year-old co-pilot Nathalia Filgueiras, who reportedly earned her pilot's license in high school.

The passengers included tech entrepreneur Adam Robinson, his wife, Helen Sharp, and their two children.

Two family friends also perished, as did the children's caregiver.

In New York, officials say a child died after contracting measles, making it the state's first such fatality in more than 30 years.

The unvaccinated 7-month-old child died in a rural area north of Syracuse, though no other details have been provided.

The CDC recommends that children get their first immunization against measles starting around 12 months.

In October, Governor Kathy Hochul declared a disaster emergency due to rising cases there and in neighboring Pennsylvania.

So far this year, the CDC has reported more than 4,800 measles cases nationwide, more than twice as many as in 2025.

In parts of Florida and the Southwest, residents cleared away mud and debris on this election day after devastating rains.

WOMAN: Guys, this is insanity.

Look at this truck.

AMNA NAWAZ: The National Weather Service says a one-in-a-thousand-year flood swamped Florida's Atlantic coast.

Some places saw roughly two feet of rain in just over a day.

More than 20 polling locations had to be moved last minute across eight Florida counties.

In the meantime, record rainfall fell in areas of Arizona.

In Sedona, floodwaters trapped people in their homes, leading to some daring rescues.

At least one person was killed in Flagstaff.

Overflowing rivers carried away cars, R.V.s, and mobile homes.

Some residents lost everything.

DOUG MICHAELS, Camp Verde, Arizona: It's devastating.

People lost their homes.

I know the one lady, she doesn't even know where her camper is.

They went down the river.

AMNA NAWAZ: Damage was also widespread in Durango, Colorado.

Officials across the states making up the so-called Four Corners say cleanup and repairs could take weeks.

In Spain, police are investigating possible involuntary manslaughter charges after a soccer player died following an on-field collision.

Jesus de Miguel of the CD Tenerife soccer club was left crumpled on the ground after he was struck in the chest by the opposing team's goalkeeper.

The 30-year-old forward suffered cardiac arrest and later died at a hospital.

Fans lay flowers outside the stadium today, and the team says it is heartbroken.

Under Spanish law, any deaths from non-natural causes are subject to judicial review.

Spanish media says de Miguel is survived by his wife and their daughter.

And on Wall Street today, stocks ended mixed despite a rebound in big tech shares.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost nearly 200 points, but the Nasdaq managed a gain of more than 200 points.

The S&P 500 also closed in positive territory.

And that is the "News Hour" for tonight.

But don't go anywhere.

Our live special coverage of the 2026 election continues tonight right here on PBS and on our Web site.

That's PBS.org/NewsHour.

I'm Amna Nawaz.

GEOFF BENNETT: And I'm Geoff Bennett.

We'll see you right back here very shortly.